![]() ![]() Where interactions have opposite impacts on residual changes, this is indicated by color coding.Īs new studies come out suggesting that the Arctic Ocean may witness its first ice-free summer by the 2030s, solar geoengineering studies have been exploring the potential benefits and pitfalls of reducing incoming sunlight and thus slowing Arctic warming. Where studies disagree on the sign of a change, the number supporting the statement in the box is indicated in brackets. See the full figure for individual studies supporting each link and the definitions of “radiative” and “dynamic” effects. This is a simplified version of the full figure in Duffey et al. The figure does not show the first order effect of SAI, which is to cool the planet and reverse the effects of climate change, but only the residual changes. This figure shows interactions potentially resulting in residual changes in the polar regions under global Stratospheric Aerosol Injection (SAI), relative to a world at the same global mean temperature without SAI. Solar geoengineering studies highlight the urgent need to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsiusįigure 5. An area of multiyear ice, much of it 4+-years old residing in the Beaufort Sea region, will likely survive the summer melt season. While first-year ice is generally thinner and more prone to melt completely than older ice, the extensive first year ice located in high northern latitudes may not melt out completely. Dark blue represents up to one-year-old ice, light blue represents one- to two-year-old ice, green represents two- to three-year-old ice, orange represents three- to four-year-old ice, and red represents ice more than four years old.Ĭredit: Data and images are from NSIDC EASE-Grid Sea Ice Age, Version 4 (Tschudi et al., 2019a) and Quicklook Arctic Weekly EASE-Grid Sea Ice Age, Version 1.Īn update of sea ice age reveals extensive areas of first-year ice extending far north from the Siberian coast. ![]() This map shows sea ice age for the week of June 25 to July 1, 2023. June 2023 compared to previous yearsįigure 4. Coupled with above-average sea level pressure over Scandinavia, this pressure pattern fostered relatively cold Arctic air reaching Novaya Zemlya and the coastal areas of the Kara Sea, resulting in temperatures just slightly below average for this time of year. North of Alaska and in the East Siberian Sea, temperatures were 1 to 3 degrees Celsius (2 to 5 degrees Fahrenheit) below average.īelow-average sea level pressure dominated Eurasia in June, with low pressure extending over much of the Arctic Ocean (Figure 2b). Above average temperatures of 1 to 4 degrees Celsius (2 to 7 degrees Fahrenheit) were found just off the coast in the Laptev Sea, the southern Beaufort Sea off the coast of Canada, and in the East Greenland Sea and stretching towards Svalbard. Yellows and reds indicate high air pressure blues and purples indicate low pressure.Ĭredit: NSIDC courtesy NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory Physical Sciences LaboratoryĪir temperatures at the 925 millibar level (approximately 2,500 feet above the surface) over the Arctic Ocean were mixed (Figure 2a). This plot shows average sea level pressure in the Arctic in millibars for June 2023. At the end of June, total sea ice extent was below that in 2022, but higher than in 20. In the Sea of Okhotsk and the Bering and Barents Seas, where ice retreat generally starts before June, the ice loss has been slower than average. This includes the Beaufort, Chukchi, Laptev, Kara and East Greenland Seas. In regions which normally lose sea ice this time of year, the rate of ice loss was faster than average. This summer, 2.30 million square kilometers of ice melted (880,000 square miles). On average, based on the 1981 to 2010 mean, about 1.69 million square kilometers (653,000 square miles) of ice is lost in June, roughly the size of Alaska. ![]() Through much of June 2023, extent declined faster than the 1981 to 2010 average (Figure 1b). ![]() The average extent was 800,000 square kilometers (309,000 square miles) below the 1981 to 2010 average and 550,000 square kilometers (212,000 square miles) above the record low June extent, which occurred in 2016. Sea Ice Index data.Ĭredit: National Snow and Ice Data CenterĪverage Arctic sea ice extent during June 2023 was 10.96 million square kilometers (4.23 million square miles) (Figure 1a), the thirteenth lowest June in the satellite record. The gray areas around the median line show the interquartile and interdecile ranges of the data. 2023 is shown in blue, 2022 in green, 2021 in orange, 2020 in brown, 2019 in magenta, and 2012 in dashed brown. The graph above shows Arctic sea ice extent as of July 5, 2023, along with daily ice extent data for four previous years and the record low year. ![]()
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